Large increase in ASD prevalence in Israel between 2017 and 2021.
Israel’s autism count doubled in five years, so BCBAs should plan for a sustained tsunami of new toddler referrals.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Dinstein et al. (2024) counted every child with an autism diagnosis in Israel. They used national health files from 2017 to 2021.
The team looked at all ages, but paid special note to toddlers. They wanted to see how fast new cases were added each year.
What they found
Autism prevalence nearly doubled in five years. The sharpest jump happened in 2- to 3-year-olds.
By 2021, Israeli clinicians were entering twice as many autism codes as they did in 2017.
How this fits with other research
Older Israeli data saw the same climb. Gal et al. (2012) tracked 1986-2005 and found a three-fold rise. The new numbers show the surge never stopped.
Davidovitch et al. (2013) set the 2010 baseline at 0.48 %. Ilan’s update shows that figure has been left far behind, confirming the trend is speeding up, not leveling off.
Kerub et al. (2020) showed M-CHAT/F catches more toddlers. The spike in 2-3-year-olds lines up with better screening, not a mysterious epidemic.
In Australia, May et al. (2018) saw diagnoses rise while the boy-to-girl gap shrank. Israel’s doubling fits this global pattern of wider awareness and broader criteria.
Why it matters
If you write plans in Israel, expect caseloads to keep climbing. Preschool slots, early-intervention teams, and supervisor hours will all feel the pressure. Use the toddler boom to push for more funding now—before waitlists stretch even longer.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
Accurate estimation of annual changes in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) prevalence is critical for planning the expansion of diagnostic, education, and intervention services at an adequate rate. Previous studies from Israel have reported that ASD prevalence among 8-year-old children has increased from estimates of 0.3% in 2008 to 0.65% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2018. Here, we analyzed data acquired from the National Insurance Institute of Israeli (NII), a governmental organization that approves and monitors all ASD children who receive welfare services in Israel, and Clalit Health Services (CHS), the largest Health Maintenance Organization in Israel that provides health services to ~52% of the population. Data from both sources included annual data files from 2017 to 2021 containing the number of ASD cases per year of birth for 1-17-year-old children. This allowed us to estimate annual ASD prevalence among 3.5 million children born between 2000 and 2020 in Israel. Both data sources revealed a nearly two-fold increase in ASD prevalence among 1-17-year-old children from 2017 to 2021. Estimated prevalence rates differed across age groups with 2-3-year-old (day-care) children increasing from 0.27% to 1.19% (>4 fold change), 4-6-year-old (pre-school) children increasing from 0.8% to 1.83%, and 8-year-old children increasing from 0.82% to 1.56% in NII data. These results demonstrate that autism prevalence continues to increase in Israel with a shift towards diagnosis at earlier ages. These findings highlight the challenge facing health and education service providers in meeting the needs of a rapidly growing autism population.
Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research, 2024 · doi:10.1002/aur.3085