Assessment & Research

Low but increasing prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in a French area from register-based data.

van Bakel et al. (2015) · Journal of autism and developmental disorders 2015
★ The Verdict

Registry data still under-count autism; real prevalence is likely several times higher and still rising.

✓ Read this if BCBAs who design district-wide autism programs or lobby for funding.
✗ Skip if Clinicians looking for single-case intervention tactics.

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

van Bakel et al. (2015) counted seven-year-olds with autism in four French counties. They used the official disability register. Kids born between 1997 and 2003 were tracked.

The team wanted to see if recorded autism cases were going up over time.

02

What they found

About 1 in every 274 children had a registered autism diagnosis. Nearly half of these children also had intellectual disability.

The numbers rose each year, but the rise was slow and steady.

03

How this fits with other research

Morales Hidalgo et al. (2021) did a fresh school survey in Spain. They found 1.5 % of children had autism—four times the French registry rate. The gap shows registries miss many cases.

Dinstein et al. (2024) updated Israeli records through 2021. Autism prevalence there doubled in just five years. The French rise looks gentle next to this newer surge.

Gillberg et al. (2006) used the same registry method in Sweden. Their rate of 1 in 188 children sits between the French and Spanish figures, confirming that how you count matters as much as where.

04

Why it matters

If you plan services, remember that official lists capture only the tip of the iceberg. Use active screening at schools and clinics. Expect caseloads to keep climbing, and reserve slots for children with both autism and intellectual disability—they make up nearly half the group.

Free CEUs

Want CEUs on This Topic?

The ABA Clubhouse has 60+ free CEUs — live every Wednesday. Ethics, supervision & clinical topics.

Join Free →
→ Action — try this Monday

Add a quick teacher-nomination step to your intake process so you catch children who never reached the disability register.

02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
other
Sample size
1123
Population
autism spectrum disorder
Finding
not reported

03Original abstract

Register-based prevalence rates of childhood autism (CA), Asperger's syndrome (AS) and other autism spectrum disorders (ASD) were calculated among children aged 7 years old of the 1997-2003 birth cohorts, living in four counties in France. The proportion of children presenting comorbidities was reported. 1123 children with ASD were recorded (M/F ratio: 4.1), representing an overall prevalence rate of 36.5/10,000 children (95 % CI 34.4-38.7): 8.8/10,000 for CA (95 % CI 7.8-9.9), 1.7/10,000 for AS (95 % CI 1.3-2.3) and 25.9/10,000 for other ASD (95 % CI 24.2-27.8). ASD prevalence significantly increased (p < 0.0001) during the period under study. The proportion of children with an intellectual disability was 47.3 %, all other comorbidities were present in less than 5 % of the cases.

Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2015 · doi:10.1007/s10803-015-2486-6