Assessment & Research

Time trends in reported autism spectrum disorders in Israel, 1986-2005.

Gal et al. (2012) · Journal of autism and developmental disorders 2012
★ The Verdict

Israeli autism counts tripled from 1986-2003 and are still climbing, so caseload planning must stay flexible.

✓ Read this if BCBAs who contract with Israeli health funds or schools.
✗ Skip if Clinicians working only outside Israel and not interested in global prevalence trends.

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

Gal et al. (2012) counted every child with an autism diagnosis in Israel’s national registry. They tracked births from 1986 through 2003 to see if numbers changed over time.

02

What they found

Autism prevalence tripled across those years. By 2003, about six boys and one girl per 1,000 were listed in the registry.

03

How this fits with other research

Dinstein et al. (2024) kept counting and found the numbers almost doubled again between 2017 and 2021. The climb keeps going.

Davidovitch et al. (2013) gave a 2010 snapshot: Israeli records still showed only half the 1 % rate seen in U.S. reports. The registry counts are real, but they miss mild cases.

May et al. (2018) saw the same male-heavy pattern in Australia, yet the boy-to-girl gap is slowly shrinking as more girls get recognized later.

04

Why it matters

If you write reports or plan services in Israel, expect caseloads to keep rising. Track new referrals each quarter and reserve early-intervention slots ahead of demand. When you see a low prevalence figure, ask whether mild or female cases might be under-registered.

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02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
other
Sample size
4138
Population
autism spectrum disorder
Finding
not reported

03Original abstract

Reports indicate sharp increase in prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We aimed to assess the time trend in prevalence of ASD in Israel and describe demographic characteristics of the registered cases. We reviewed the autism registry of the Israeli Ministry of Social Affairs which includes 4,709 cases and identified 4,138 cases born between the years 1986 and 2005. Registered cases were mainly males (84.4%) and Jewish (96.6%). Prevalence data indicated an increase from 1.2 per 1,000 in those born in 1986 to 3.6 per 1,000 in 2003. Greater increase was seen in males, reaching a peak of 5.7 per 1,000, compared to 1.2 per 1,000 in females. Increased ASD prevalence was observed among Israeli children born in 1986-2005.

Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2012 · doi:10.1007/s10803-011-1252-7