Assessment & Research

Brief report: "the autism epidemic". The registered prevalence of autism in a Swedish urban area.

Gillberg et al. (2006) · Journal of autism and developmental disorders 2006
★ The Verdict

Gothenburg’s service records already showed 1 in 81 kids with ASD by 2001, and later studies prove active screening finds even more.

✓ Read this if BCBAs doing intake assessments in city clinics or schools.
✗ Skip if Rural practitioners who only see rare referrals.

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

Christopher and his team counted every child with an autism diagnosis in Gothenburg, Sweden.

They looked at city records for kids born from 1989 to 1994 and checked who had a registered ASD code by 2001.

02

What they found

The city register showed 53 kids with autism for every 10,000 born — about 1 in 81 children.

The numbers climbed each year but seemed to level off for the youngest group.

03

How this fits with other research

van Bakel et al. (2015) found the same upward curve in France, giving a direct thumbs-up to the Swedish trend.

Morales Hidalgo et al. (2021) and Morales-Hidalgo et al. (2018) double the Swedish rate when they screen schools instead of relying on records — an apparent contradiction that melts away once you see registers miss mild cases.

Lai et al. (2012) widen the lens: Taiwan’s whole-country data show the climb keeps going and boys still outnumber girls 5 to 1.

04

Why it matters

If you assess kids in urban clinics, expect roughly 1 % to already carry an ASD code — and know the real share is likely higher.

Use active screening tools, not just file reviews, to catch overlooked girls and mild presentations.

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Add a quick teacher-parent questionnaire to your intake packet — registers alone miss cases.

02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
other
Population
autism spectrum disorder
Finding
not reported

03Original abstract

The objective of this study was to establish rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) in a circumscribed geographical region. The total population born in 1977-1994, living in Göteborg Sweden in 2001, was screened for ASD in registers of the Child Neuropsychiatry Clinic. The minimum registered rate of autistic disorder was 20.5 in 10,000. Other ASDs were 32.9 in 10,000, including 9.2 in 10,000 with Asperger syndrome. Males predominated. In the youngest group (7-12 years), 1.23% had a registered diagnosis of ASD. There was an increase in the rate of diagnosed registered ASD over time; the cause was not determined. The increase tended to level off in the younger age cohort, perhaps due to Asperger syndrome cases missed in screening.

Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2006 · doi:10.1007/s10803-006-0081-6