Brief Report: Forecasting the Economic Burden of Autism in 2015 and 2025 in the United States.

Leigh et al. (2015) ran the numbers on what autism costs the whole country. They added up medical bills, therapy, special ed, lost wages, and other expenses. The team then projected how those totals would grow from 2015 to 2025.

The forecast put the 2015 price tag at $268 billion. By 2025 the bill is expected to hit $461 billion. That price is on par with diabetes and ADHD spending nationwide.

Gaynor et al. (2008) and Reyer et al. (2006) set the baseline. T et al. found privately insured kids with autism already cost 4–6 times more than typical peers. S et al. showed Medicaid kids with autism cost 10 times more than other Medicaid kids in the late 1990s. Paul et al. roll those high per-person costs into one national forecast.

Roddy et al. (2019) extend the story abroad. Irish families pay about twice what the state pays each year. Severity raises the family bill but not the state’s, showing who really feels the burden.

Goodwin et al. (2012) add a policy twist. States that spend more Medicaid dollars per child with disabilities lower the out-of-pocket hit for families. This supports Paul’s big number and tells BCBAs where to push for funds.

Use these billion-dollar figures when you ask school boards or state agencies for more slots, staff, or reimbursement. Pair the forecast with older medical-cost data to show the trend is long and expensive. Point to Irish and Medicaid studies to argue that public spending now saves families—and the system—later.