Prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences and autism in Scottish primary schools 2018-2022.
Scottish primary schools now record neurodevelopmental needs in one in six pupils—use this number to secure resources.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Maciver et al. (2023) counted every child in Scottish primary schools. They looked at official records for autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions. The count ran from 2018 through 2022.
What they found
Autism labels rose to 2.6% of all pupils by 2022. Broader neurodevelopmental needs reached 16.2%. Both numbers kept climbing across the five-year window.
How this fits with other research
Rah et al. (2020) saw the same climb in Korea. Autism and developmental delay quadrupled there from 2003-2017. The two studies use different countries and years, but the upward line looks the same.
Zahorodny et al. (2014) spotted the trend earlier in New Jersey. Autism prevalence jumped 64% among elementary pupils from 2002-2006. Scotland’s later rise confirms the pattern keeps repeating.
Tavassoli et al. (2012) found a twist inside one country. Dutch schools reported almost four times more autism in a tech region than elsewhere. Donald’s national count smooths out such local hotspots, giving planners a single Scotland-wide figure to use.
Why it matters
One in six Scottish pupils now carries a documented neurodevelopmental label. That ratio will shape your caseload. Schedule staffing, train assistants, and secure funding now, not later. When you write next year’s service plan, quote the 16.2% figure to justify extra slots.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
This study investigated the prevalence of neurodevelopmental needs among children in primary schools in Scotland. Two groups were identified: autistic learners and a larger group of learners who had neurodevelopmental differences. These differences encompassed any need for additional support in various domains, including communication, interaction, emotional regulation, coordination, movement, and cognition. A two-phase process was employed, drawing on data from a cross-sectional study followed by a secondary analysis of a population census. In the first phase, a random sample of 688 children with additional support needs from 22 schools participated. Demographics, support characteristics, and neurodevelopmental needs were identified. Results revealed that 76.89% of children with additional support needs exhibited a need type consistent with a neurodevelopmental difference. In the second phase, data from the Scottish Government Annual Pupil Census, covering all state-provided primary school children between 2018 and 2022, were analyzed. Modeling was conducted using data from the first phase to estimate prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences. Data on autism were directly extracted from the census. Analysis revealed an increase in the prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences and autism. The prevalence of autism rose by 31.98%, with 2.60% of primary school children identified as autistic in 2022. Similarly, the prevalence of neurodevelopmental differences increased by 10.57%, with 16.22% of primary school children exhibiting such differences in 2022. Across 32 localities, regional variations in prevalence were observed. These findings show the substantial number of neurodivergent children within Scottish primary schools and emphasize the need for a neurodevelopmentally informed approach to inclusive education.
Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research, 2023 · doi:10.1002/aur.3063