Assessment & Research

Increasing autism prevalence in metropolitan New Jersey.

Zahorodny et al. (2014) · Autism : the international journal of research and practice 2014
★ The Verdict

Autism prevalence shot up 64% in metro New Jersey from 2002 to 2006, and later studies show the climb is still going.

✓ Read this if BCBAs who plan caseloads or write funding requests in school and clinic settings.
✗ Skip if Practitioners focused only on adult services or non-autistic populations.

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

The team counted autism cases in three New Jersey counties. They compared 2002 and 2006 records. They used the same tracking method both years.

The count covered every child with an autism label in the area. Race, income, and autism subtype were all logged.

02

What they found

Autism prevalence rose from 10.6 to 17.4 per thousand kids. That is a 64% jump in only four years.

The increase showed up in every group: boys, girls, minority families, and each autism subtype.

03

How this fits with other research

Maciver et al. (2023) later saw the same climb in Scotland. Their national census found a 32% rise in primary pupils with autism. Together the studies show the surge is not just an American glitch.

Rah et al. (2020) tracked all developmental disorders in Korea. They found a four-fold increase from 2003 to 2017. The Korean data widen the New Jersey spike into a longer, broader trend.

Tavassoli et al. (2012) add a twist. One Dutch tech city already had sky-high autism rates while nearby towns stayed low. Their finding hints that better spotting, not just more cases, drives part of the rise.

04

Why it matters

More autism labels mean more incoming clients. Use the 64% figure when you justify staffing and budget requests. Update wait-list projections and consider group-based models to stretch therapist hours.

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02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
other
Sample size
59506
Population
autism spectrum disorder
Finding
not reported

03Original abstract

High baseline autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates in New Jersey led to a follow-up surveillance. The objectives were to determine autism spectrum disorder prevalence in the year 2006 in New Jersey and to identify changes in the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder or in the characteristics of the children with autism spectrum disorder, between 2002 and 2006. The cohorts included 30,570 children, born in 1998 and 28,936 children, born in 1994, residing in Hudson, Union, and Ocean counties, New Jersey. Point prevalence estimates by sex, ethnicity, autism spectrum disorder subtype, and previous autism spectrum disorder diagnosis were determined. For 2006, a total of 533 children with autism spectrum disorder were identified, consistent with prevalence of 17.4 per 1000 (95% confidence interval = 15.9-18.9), indicating a significant increase in the autism spectrum disorder prevalence (p < 0.001), between 2002 (10.6 per 1000) and 2006. The rise in autism spectrum disorder was broad, affecting major demographic groups and subtypes. Boys with autism spectrum disorder outnumbered girls by nearly 5:1. Autism spectrum disorder prevalence was higher among White children than children of other ethnicities. Additional studies are needed to specify the influence of better awareness of autism spectrum disorder prevalence estimates and to identify possible autism spectrum disorder risk factors. More resources are necessary to address the needs of individuals affected by autism spectrum disorder.

Autism : the international journal of research and practice, 2014 · doi:10.1177/1362361312463977