The changing prevalence of autism in three regions of Canada.
Autism numbers in Canada kept climbing through 2010—expect continued service demand.
01Research in Context
What this study did
The team tracked autism counts in three Canadian regions from 2002 to 2010.
They used government records of kids aged 2 to 14.
Each year they asked: how many children have an autism diagnosis?
What they found
The numbers rose every year by about 10 to 15 percent.
Growth never flattened during the nine-year window.
More kids entered services each year without a clear ceiling.
How this fits with other research
Coo et al. (2008) saw the same climb in British Columbia schools.
They found one-third of the rise was simply re-labeling kids who already had special-ed codes.
Williams et al. (2002) in California also showed autism counts rising while mental-retardation counts fell, pointing to diagnostic substitution.
Together these studies say the surge is partly real, partly better detection.
Why it matters
Caseloads are still growing, so waitlists will too.
You can plan staffing ratios, budget requests, and parent information sessions now instead of reacting later.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
In 2002/2003, the National Epidemiologic Database for the Study of Autism in Canada started capturing information on children diagnosed with autism in different regions of the country. Based on data collected through 2008 in Newfoundland and Labrador and 2010 in Prince Edward Island and Southeastern Ontario, the estimated average annual percent increases in prevalence among children 2-14 years of age ranged from 9.7 % (95 % CI 7.8-11.6) to 14.6 % (95 % CI 11.3-18.0). Differential in-migration and identification of previously undetected cases may have contributed in part to the increases observed, but we cannot rule out the possibility of a true increase in incidence, particularly given the lack of a leveling-off of prevalence among the 6- to 9-year olds.
Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2014 · doi:10.1007/s10803-013-1856-1