Assessment & Research

Investigation of shifts in autism reporting in the California Department of Developmental Services.

Grether et al. (2009) · Journal of autism and developmental disorders 2009
★ The Verdict

California’s autism surge is real, not relabeling, so BCBAs should expect continued caseload growth.

✓ Read this if BCBAs writing prevalence reports or planning services in California.
✗ Skip if Practitioners outside state-funded systems who rely only on private insurance data.

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

The team checked if California's autism numbers were rising because kids once labeled with mental retardation were simply re-labeled with autism.

They pulled 1996-2007 records from the state Department of Developmental Services.

Workers compared electronic codes against original paper files for the kids.

02

What they found

The codes matched the paper files almost perfectly.

Only a large share of cases showed a clear switch from mental retardation-only to autism.

The rise in autism cases is real, not a paperwork trick.

03

How this fits with other research

Richman et al. (2001) showed that autism tests like false-belief tasks are reliable. Wong et al. (2009) now shows the state records are reliable too. Together they mean both the tools and the data are solid.

Kirby et al. (2024) found primary-care doctors diagnose autism a year earlier than specialists. Wong et al. (2009) proves those early labels stick in the state system, so catching kids sooner truly adds them to the count.

Zou et al. (2025) maps China’s new autism policies. Their call for better health-information systems echoes why Wong et al. (2009)’s audit matters everywhere: good data drives good policy.

04

Why it matters

You can trust California DDS autism counts when you write reports or compare prevalence. The growth is not coding drift, so plan caseloads and staffing for real demand.

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02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
other
Population
autism spectrum disorder, intellectual disability
Finding
null

03Original abstract

We investigated if shifts in the coding of qualifying conditions in the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS) have contributed to the increase in California children with autism observed in recent years. Qualifying condition codes for mental retardation (MR) and autism in DDS electronic files were compared to hard-copy records for samples of children born 1987, 1990, 1994, and 1997. Contrary to expectations, we did not find evidence of a coding shift from "MR only" to "both MR and autism" or an increase in the proportion of children with coded autism who lacked supportive diagnostic documentation in records (possible "misclassifications"). These results indicate that changes in DDS coding practices are unlikely to explain the increase in DDS clients with autism.

Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2009 · doi:10.1007/s10803-009-0754-z