Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.
For SEND students, behavior problems spike sharply once four risk factors stack up—so prioritize kids past that tipping point.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Oldfield et al. (2015) counted how many risk factors each SEND student carried. They looked at risks like poverty, family stress, and learning problems.
Then they checked if more risks meant worse behavior. They wanted to see if trouble starts slowly or jumps after a certain number.
What they found
Behavior problems stayed low until a child hit about four risks. After that, trouble shot up fast.
The curve looked like a ski slope, not a straight line. One more risk past the tipping point made a big jump in behavior issues.
How this fits with other research
Bøttcher et al. (2013) said risk comes from a mismatch between the child’s needs and the setting, not just from the disability itself. Jeremy’s count method gives you a quick way to spot that mismatch.
Verkerk et al. (2014) also used a tally. They showed that very-low-birth-weight preschoolers with two or more early delays were far more likely to need learning support later. Both studies say the same thing: once risks pile up, outcomes drop fast.
Foti et al. (2015) found wide behavior gaps in kids with reading disability. Jeremy’s model explains why: many of those kids likely carry extra risks beyond the reading problem itself.
Why it matters
You can use a simple risk checklist at intake. Count family, health, learning, and social items. When the total hits four, move that student to the top of your intervention list. Targeting the high-score group first gives you the biggest behavior payoff.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous.
Research in developmental disabilities, 2015 · doi:10.1016/j.ridd.2015.05.010