Twenty predictions about the future of residential services in mental retardation.

Wolfensberger (2011) wrote 20 predictions about where group homes and larger centers are headed. He looked at money, laws, and what people with intellectual disability say they want.

The paper is a think-piece, not new data. It paints a picture of smaller, mixed homes paid for by clear cost-benefit math.

The forecast says big wards will keep shrinking. Homes will look like ordinary neighborhoods. Funding will hinge on showing each dollar improves a person’s life.

Staff will need new skills in choice, tech, and community ties. Quality checks will move from rules to results.

Salmi et al. (2010) backs him up. From 1988 to 2008, small homes under seven residents jumped from 29% to 73%. The move was already happening.

Mansell et al. (2002) adds a warning. Those same small homes now hold people with tougher behavior and health needs. Wolf’s cost-benefit plan must pay for extra training.

Hatton et al. (2004) gives a tool that fits the vision. The Resident Choice Scale tracks self-determination, one of Wolf’s key outcomes.

If you run or consult on residential programs, treat this as your early weather report. Start shifting budgets toward community homes, train staff in choice and positive behavior supports, and pick metrics like the Resident Choice Scale so you can show funders the move is worth it.