How do autistic people fare in adult life and can we predict it from childhood?
Most autistic young adults still need daily help and lack jobs, but the right supports can flip those odds.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Forbes et al. (2023) followed autistic children into their early twenties. They asked how many lived on their own, had a job or studied, and how they felt.
The team looked back at childhood IQ, daily-living scores, and autism traits to see which numbers best guessed adult life.
What they found
Only one in twenty young adults lived independently. About one third had paid work or college.
Child scores predicted housing and job status a bit, but did not forecast mental-health troubles. Mood levels matched typical UK norms, not higher.
How this fits with other research
Harvery et al. (2021) saw brighter news in Australia: autistic adults with workplace tweaks and social supports kept suitable jobs. The UK cohort lacked those supports, so the low 36 % rate is not a contradiction—it is a warning about missing help.
Gundeslioglu et al. (2025) zoomed in on UK university students. They found more mental-health diagnoses than in Gordon’s group. Campus life may stress students extra, while Gordon’s wider sample included non-students whose mood looked average.
Goldfarb et al. (2024) mapped where autistic adults work. Jobs cluster in healthcare, IT, and public service, showing doors can open when supports exist.
Why it matters
For BCBAs writing transition plans, independence is rare and jobs are scarce without supports. Push for workplace adjustments and social coaching before graduation. Track daily-living skills early, but know they only partly predict housing success. Mental-health screens still matter, yet low scores do not guarantee calm—watch for hidden stress.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
This study describes social, mental health, and quality of life outcomes in early adulthood, and examines childhood predictors in the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP), a longitudinal population-based cohort. Young autistic adults face variable but often substantial challenges across many areas of life. Prediction of outcomes is important to set expectations and could lead to the development of targeted early intervention. Autistic children were enrolled at age 12 and parents reported outcomes 11 years later when their children were age 23 (n = 121). Thirty six percent of autistic adults were in competitive employment or education and 54% had frequent contact with friends. Only 5% of autistic adults were living independently, and 37% required overnight care. Moderate or severe anxiety and depression symptoms were found for 11% and 12% of young adults, respectively. Subjective quality of life was similar to UK averages except for social relationships. Using childhood IQ, autism traits and adaptive functioning meaningful predictions can be made of living situation, employment and education and physical health. Prediction was poor for friendships, mental health outcomes and other aspects of quality of life. Our results suggest that although young autistic adults face challenges across normative, social outcomes, they may be faring better in regard to mental health or quality of life. Childhood IQ, autism traits and adaptive functioning are most useful for predicting outcomes. After accounting for these factors, childhood measurements of behavioral and emotional problems and language offered little improvement in prediction of adult outcomes.
Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research, 2023 · doi:10.3109/13668250.2016.1262010