Brief report: Predictors of outcomes in the Early Start Denver Model delivered in a group setting.

Vivanti et al. (2013) ran a one-year group-based Early Start Denver Model program. They wanted to know which starting skills help kids with autism make the biggest gains.

They tracked object use, goal understanding, imitation, IQ, social attention, and age. Then they looked at who improved most after twelve months.

Kids who could already play with toys the right way, understand others' goals, and copy actions made the largest leaps. Surprisingly, IQ scores, how much they looked at faces, hours of therapy, and age did not matter.

In plain words: strong hands-on learning skills beat test scores for predicting progress.

Contaldo et al. (2020) saw the same pattern in a mixed individual-plus-group ESDM program. They also found that kids with better non-verbal skills and milder symptoms gained the most. Together, the two studies show the predictor holds no matter how you deliver ESDM.

Panganiban et al. (2025) looked at a different six-week adaptive program for minimally verbal children. They found joint attention and play skills forecast fast gains, not IQ. This extends the idea that hands-on social play, not test scores, drives early success.

Cerasuolo et al. (2022) reviewed many ABA studies and warned that no single baseline skill guarantees success. Their broad view supports the narrow finding here: check the child's real-life object and play skills, then stay flexible.

Before you place a preschooler in group ESDM, spend five minutes watching how they use toys and copy others. If those skills are strong, you can tell parents to expect bigger jumps. If not, add extra object-play and imitation targets first instead of waiting for "cognitive readiness."