Predicting the Effects of Interventions: A Tutorial on the Disequilibrium Model
Open the free disequilibrium Excel file, punch in your baseline and planned contingency, and see if your intervention will actually move the behavior.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Jacobs et al. (2017) built a free Excel sheet. It uses disequilibrium math to forecast what will happen when you add or remove reinforcement or punishment.
You enter baseline response rate, reinforcer size, effort, and schedule values. The sheet spits out a predicted new rate. No new data were collected; the paper is a how-to guide.
What they found
The authors do not report new experimental results. They show worked examples: if you make the task harder, the model says behavior will drop. If you raise reinforcer size, the model says behavior will rise.
How this fits with other research
Grace (1995) already showed that higher effort cuts behavior in real people. The Excel tool bakes that rule into a formula so you can preview the drop before you treat.
Saunders et al. (1988) proved that one number—unit price (cost ÷ benefit)—predicts consumption. The calculator uses the same price idea, letting you test price changes on paper.
Fisher et al. (2018) used momentum equations to stop resurgence. Their study shows models can guide real treatment; Jacobs gives you another model, but in a ready-to-use spreadsheet.
Why it matters
You can now road-test a contingency before you place it on a client. Plug in your baseline, tweak effort or reward size, and see the predicted change. If the sheet says the behavior will barely move, you can adjust the plan before spending session time on a weak intervention.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
The disequilibrium approach to reinforcement and punishment, derived from the probability-differential hypothesis and response deprivation hypothesis, provides a number of potentially useful mathematical models for practitioners. The disequilibrium approach and its accompanying models have proven effective in the prediction and control of behavior, yet they have not been fully espoused and integrated into clinical practice. The purpose of this tutorial is to detail the disequilibrium approach and adapt its mathematical models for use as a tool in applied settings. The disequilibrium models specify how to arrange contingencies and predict the effects of those contingencies. We aggregate these models, and provide them as a single tool, in the form of a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet that calculates the direction and magnitude of behavior change based on baseline measures and a practitioner’s choice of intervention parameters. How practitioners take baseline measures and select intervention parameters in accordance with disequilibrium models is explicated. The proposed tool can be accessed and downloaded for use at https://osf.io/knf7x/.
Behavior Analysis in Practice, 2017 · doi:10.1007/s40617-017-0176-x