Empirically derived injury prevention rules.

The team looked back at 1,500 childhood injury reports. They matched each scrape or burn to what the child was doing and where.

They found 12 simple rules that could have stopped 9 out of 10 injuries. Examples: keep hot pots on back burners and lock up pills.

Parents followed the 12 rules only 20 % of the time. The same few risks showed up again and again.

Most injuries were minor, but all were predictable. The rules came straight from the data, not from expert opinion.

Kelleher et al. (1987) used the same think-like-a-behavior-analyst method to cut crime. Both papers turn environment-behavior patterns into plain-language checklists.

Udhnani et al. (2025) shows why parents ignore rules: people pick rules that pay off fast. If safety habits do not bring quick praise or relief, they drop out.

Schoenfeld et al. (1960) built the first reliable hardware for tracking contingencies. Their box is grandparent to the data loggers that let L et al. count real-world reinforcers and injuries with precision.

You can turn the 12 rules into a brief parent quiz at intake. Score one point for each rule already used. Pick the lowest-scoring items for the first week of parent training. Tie each rule to an immediate reinforcer: a sticker on a chart, a 30-second hug, or five extra minutes of screen time. The data say you will prevent most household injuries before they happen.