Are deluded people unusually prone to illusory correlation?

Researchers tested whether people with paranoia see false links more often.

They gave neutral word tasks to three groups: paranoid schizophrenia, non-paranoid schizophrenia, and depression.

Then they counted how many fake patterns each group reported.

All three groups saw about the same low rate of fake links.

Paranoid patients were no more likely to spot illusory correlations than the others.

The old stereotype that “paranoid people jump to conclusions” did not hold up.

Davies et al. (2014) also warns against assuming behavior equals diagnosis; they found little proof that aggression signals depression in ID.

Both papers tell us to stop using loose clinical shortcuts.

Edgin et al. (2017) looked at a different bias—negative social interpretations—in teens with mild ID and social anxiety.

Their positive link between anxiety and bias seems to clash with P et al.’s null result, but the tasks differed: one used social stories, the other neutral words.

Method shapes outcome; content-free tasks may not trigger the bias we expect.

When you assess thinking biases, pick tasks that match real-life content your client faces.

A clean null result like this keeps you from over-pathologizing paranoid clients.

Check your own assumptions before you write “jumps to conclusions” in a report.