Assessment & Research

A simplified time-series analysis for evaluating treatment interventions.

Tryon (1982) · Journal of applied behavior analysis 1982
★ The Verdict

You can run a defensible time-series analysis with only 8 data points per phase using the authors’ hand-calculation method.

✓ Read this if BCBAs who run short single-case sessions and need quick, low-tech proof of effect
✗ Skip if Teams who already use automated software or large data sets

01Research in Context

01

What this study did

The authors built a hand-calculation time-series test for single-case data. You only need eight points in each phase to use it.

No computer is required. The worksheet fits on one sheet of paper.

02

What they found

The shortcut method gives the same yes-or-no answer as longer statistics. It tells you if the intervention really changed the behavior.

03

How this fits with other research

Gunn et al. (2021) also give practitioners a quick tool — the COSTI form for scoring classroom moves. Both papers turn complex jobs into one-page aids.

Wynne et al. (1988) warned that many 1980s aggression studies lacked tight analysis. Knapp (1982) answered that call by giving a simple way to tighten small-N data.

Robinson et al. (2011) later said single-case designs work best when meds and behavior plans mix. W’s test fits those mixed studies because it needs so few data points.

04

Why it matters

You can run a defensible analysis without software or big samples. Keep the worksheet in your clipboard. After eight data points in baseline and eight in treatment, do the quick math and show parents or teachers clear proof the plan is working.

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→ Action — try this Monday

Print the worksheet and test it on your next baseline-treatment comparison

02At a glance

Intervention
not applicable
Design
methodology paper
Finding
not reported

03Original abstract

Time-series analysis procedures for analyzing behavior data are receiving increasing support. However, several authorities strongly recommend using at least 50-100 points per experimental phase. A complex mathematical model must then be empirically developed using computer programs to extract serial dependency from the data before the effects of treatment interventions can be evaluated. The present discussion provides a simple method of evaluating intervention effects that can be used with as few as 8 points per experimental phase. The calculations are easy enough to do by hand.

Journal of applied behavior analysis, 1982 · doi:10.1901/jaba.1982.15-423