Maternal metabolic profile predicts high or low risk of an autism pregnancy outcome.
A prenatal blood test spots high- or low-autism-risk pregnancies with 90% accuracy but cannot diagnose the baby.
01Research in Context
What this study did
Doctors drew blood from pregnant women. They checked folate-pathway chemicals.
The team compared moms who later had a child with autism to moms who did not.
What they found
The blood test sorted moms into high-risk or low-risk groups with 90% accuracy.
High-risk moms had an 18.7% chance of autism in the baby. Low-risk moms had 1.7%.
The test could not tell if this exact baby would get autism—only the group risk.
How this fits with other research
Zhao et al. (2024) extends this idea. They saw moms without folic acid had triple the autism odds when the pregnancy was unplanned.
Virk et al. (2016) seems to contradict the finding. They gave moms folic acid pills and saw no drop in autism rates. The key difference: Kathryn et al. measured natural blood chemistry, not pills. Blood levels may matter more than extra pills.
Smit et al. (2019) shows the same limit. Temperament surveys could sort babies into risk groups but could not flag who would later be diagnosed. Both tools work for groups, not for one child.
Why it matters
You cannot use this blood test to counsel a mom about her current baby. You can use it to find high-risk pregnancies for extra supports like early developmental checks and parent training. Pair the result with other markers, not as a stand-alone crystal ball.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
BACKGROUND: Currently there is no test for pregnant mothers that can predict the probability of having a child that will be diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Recent estimates indicate that if a mother has previously had a child with ASD, the risk of having a second child with ASD is ~18.7% (High Risk) whereas the risk of ASD in the general population is ~1.7% (Low Risk). METHODS: In this study, metabolites of the folate-dependent transmethylation and transsulfuration biochemical pathways of pregnant mothers were measured to determine whether or not the risk of having a child with autism could be predicted by her metabolic profile. Pregnant mothers who have had a child with autism before were separated into two groups based on the diagnosis of their child whether the child had autism (ASD) or not (TD). Then these mothers were compared to a group of control mothers who have not had a child with autism before. A total of 107 mothers were in the High Risk category and 25 mothers in the Low Risk category. The High Risk category was further separated into 29 mothers in the ASD group and 78 mothers in the TD group. RESULTS: The metabolic results indicated that among High Risk mothers, it was not possible to predict an autism pregnancy outcome. However, the metabolic profile was able to predict with approximately 90% sensitivity and specificity whether a mother fell into the High Risk group (18.7% risk) or Low Risk group (1.7% risk). CONCLUSIONS: Based upon these measurements it is not possible to determine during a pregnancy if a child will be diagnosed with ASD by age 3. However, differences in the folate-dependent transmethylation and transsulfuration metabolites are indicative of the risk level (High Risk of 18.7% vs. Low Risk of 1.7%) of the mother for having a child with ASD.
Research in autism spectrum disorders, 2018 · doi:10.1089/ars.2005.7.547