Brief report: prevalence of autism spectrum conditions in children aged 5-11 years in Cambridgeshire, UK.
One in 167 Cambridgeshire primary pupils had autism in 2002, a baseline that today looks low because wider criteria and sharper eyes now find far more cases.
01Research in Context
What this study did
A small UK team visited every primary school in Cambridgeshire. They looked for autism spectrum conditions in children aged 5-11. Teachers and parents filled out short checklists. Kids who scored high were seen by a clinician.
The survey covered mainstream and special schools. No child was given therapy; the goal was simply to count.
What they found
One child in every 167 had an autism spectrum condition. Boys outnumbered girls 4 to 1 overall. In regular classrooms the boy-to-girl ratio jumped to 8 to 1. Special schools showed a much higher rate than mainstream ones.
How this fits with other research
The 2002 Cambridgeshire number—57 per 10 000—felt high at the time. Fombonne (2003) pooled 32 earlier studies and placed typical prevalence at 30–60 per 10 000, so the new count sat at the top of that band.
Two decades later the picture has changed. Zeidan et al. (2022) reviewed 202 surveys and now report a global median of 100 per 10 000. Wong et al. (2025) used the same two-step school method in Hong Kong and found 257 per 10 000. The rise is not an epidemic; broader rules and better awareness catch more cases.
May et al. (2020) tracked Australian 12-year-olds born just two years after the Cambridgeshire kids and saw 436 per 10 000. Together these papers show a steady climb, not a sudden spike.
Why it matters
When you screen a new caseload, expect far more diagnoses than early textbooks suggest. Use current prevalence (about 1 %) when you justify staffing to schools or insurers. Remember the hidden girls: the 8-to-1 ratio in mainstream classes means many females are still missed—so lower your checklist cut-off for them.
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02At a glance
03Original abstract
The study aimed to establish prevalence of the broader autistic spectrum, including Asperger syndrome, in 5- to 11-year-olds in Cambridgeshire, UK. Cases of diagnosed autism spectrum condition (ASC) in children who were in Cambridgeshire schools and aged between 5 and 11 years on 31 December 1999 were sought using public records, screening instruments, educational psychology and special educational needs coordinator (SENCO) records. We report a prevalence of ASC in the age group 5-11 years of almost 0.6 percent (57 in 10,000). This is 11 times higher than the rate of classic autism but in line with other recent national and international rates for the broader spectrum. In the responding mainstream schools the prevalence was 0.33 percent. In the responding special school population it was 12.5 percent. The overall sex ratio of the children with ASC replicated findings for classical autism of 4:1 (M:F), but in those children being educated in mainstream schools the sex ratio was 8:1 (M:F).
Autism : the international journal of research and practice, 2002 · doi:10.1177/1362361302006003002